Can Pep Guardiola’s team climb into the Premier League’s top four? We look ahead to Saturday’s late kick-off with our Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Man City vs Chelsea: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City slight favourites to beat Chelsea, giving them a 46.3% win probability to the Blues’ 30.2%.
- After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games from the start of November, Man City have now won three of their last four, scoring more goals in this run (14) than in their previous 11 league matches (13).
- Phil Foden has scored in each of his last three Premier League games (five goals in total). He has never scored in four straight league matches before.
Wednesday’s dramatic 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain left Manchester City on the brink of an early UEFA Champions League exit, with their worst campaign under Pep Guardiola threatening to reach a new nadir.
In the Premier League, however, City have turned something of a corner lately, taking 10 points from their last four games to boost their hopes of a top-four finish. They have a chance to move into the Champions League spots on Saturday, when they welcome Chelsea to the Etihad Stadium.
After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games from the start of November (D2 L6), City have now won three of their last four (D1). They have scored 14 goals in this run, more than they had in their previous 11 league games (13).
However, the one game they have not won in that stint – a 2-2 draw at Brentford last week – demonstrated their fragility at the back, and those failings were laid bare once again against PSG. Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland put City 2-0 ahead in Paris, only for the hosts to come roaring back to win. It was the first time City had lost a game having led by two goals in any competition since May 2021 – a 3-2 Premier League defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion.
City also faced as many as 26 shots in a match for the first since September 2012, when Real Madrid fired in 35 against them in a Champions League group-stage contest.
Guardiola has moved to strengthen his backline with the January acquisitions of Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis, both of whom could be involved in the matchday squad on Saturday with fellow defender Rúben Dias a doubt. Also eligible is Omar Marmoush, who arrived from Eintracht Frankfurt for an estimated £63million on Thursday.
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Prior to leaving Eintracht, Marmoush recorded 15 goals and nine assists in 17 Bundesliga games in 2024-25, and 20 goals and 13 assists in 26 games in all competitions.
Alongside fellow Egyptian Mohamed Salah, Marmoush is one of just two players from Europe’s top five leagues in double figures for goals and assists in all competitions this term.
Man City vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
City are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Chelsea, winning five and drawing two since a 2-1 home loss in May 2021, a result that delayed their coronation as Premier League champions.
Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League away games against City, winning 1-0 in February 2014.
They have failed to score themselves on seven occasions in that run, while they were also shut out when the teams faced off at Stamford Bridge on the opening matchday of 2024-25, losing 2-0.
Man City vs Chelsea Prediction
City are considered favourites for Saturday’s game, but with the champions assigned a 46.3% win probability, the supercomputer is not ruling out a result for Chelsea.
The chances of a draw are rated at 23.6%, with Chelsea assigned a 30.2% chance of victory.
City have lost their last three Premier League games played immediately after a European midweek game, as many as they had in their previous 34 (W21 D10). The last time the Citizens lost four such matches in a single campaign was back in 2010-11.
Dora’s weekend betting tips
Bournemouth V Nottingham
DWWDW. WWWDW
Over 1.5
Brighton V Everton
DDWWW. LLWLW
Over 1.5
Liverpool V Ipswich
DLWDW. WDWLL
Liverpool win
Southampton V Newcastle
LLWLL. WWWWL
X2
Wolves V Arsenal
WDLWL. DLLWD
Over 1.5
Man City V Chelsea
WWWDW. LLDWD
Over 1.5
Germany
Freiburg V Bayern
LWLWL. WWWWW
Over 1.5
Dortmund V Werder Bremen
DWLLL. WLLDL
Over 1.5
Mainz V Stuttgart
WWWLL. LDWWW
Over 1.5
Italy
Como V Atalanta
WLWDL. DLDDL
X2
Napoli V Juventus
WWWWW. DLDDW
X1
