Liverpool and Barcelona are the only two teams mathematically guaranteed to be in the top eight. Arne Slot’s side have a 100% record but have not yet sealed first place after Raphinha’s dramatic late winner at Benfica on Tuesday, but Liverpool are guaranteed a top-two finish, while Barça will also confirm their place in the top two spots with a positive result against Atalanta on the final matchday.
The next questions are: does it matter whether they finish first or second, or whether Barça are also even in the top two?
There is no difference between first and second because the path of the teams finishing in the top two spots is decided by a draw (essentially a flip of a coin).
This new format is supposed to provide some motivation to finish second rather than third, although it’s not clear that there will be any advantage to doing so on this occasion. The top two teams will be drawn in the round of 16 against the two teams that win their play-off from the four that finish in positions 15, 16, 17 and 18: that’s currently Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus and Celtic.
A lot will change after the final round of fixtures, though, so Madrid and Bayern could well finish higher up the table.
Have Arsenal Already Qualified?
The Opta supercomputer caused a bit of a stir on Wednesday night when it was put to Mikel Arteta after Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb that his team was guaranteed to qualify directly for the last 16.
It is mathematically possible for Arsenal to finish outside the top eight, but it is very, very, very unlikely. So unlikely, in fact, that in the Opta supercomputer’s latest round of 10,000 simulations for the final matchday of the league phase of the 2024-25 Champions League, Arteta’s side finished in the top eight all 10,000 times.
In other words, we aren’t saying it is 100% certain that Arsenal will make the top eight, just that every single time the Opta supercomputer simulated the final round of matches, Arsenal did enough to qualify.
For Arsenal to fail to finish in the top eight, they must lose to Girona and five of the six following results need to happen:
Inter win or draw OR Monaco win and make up a goal difference of nine to Arsenal
Atlético Madrid win (vs Salzburg)
Milan win (vs Dinamo Zagreb)
Atalanta win (vs Barcelona)
Bayer Leverkusen win and make up six goal difference to Arsenal (vs Sparta Prague)
One of Aston Villa/Feyenoord/Lille/Brest win and make up a goal difference of seven to 10 dependent on the team winning.
In other words, it’s almost certain that Arsenal will be in the top eight. A win against already-eliminated Girona will guarantee Arsenal a spot in the top four.
Does It Matter Where Man City Finish?
At this stage, City will just be happy to make the play-off round. A win over Club Brugge will guarantee their spot in the top 24, but if all the other teams above them who need a positive result succeed, City will finish in 24th, the final play-off position.
That would mean they faced a two-legged play-off against the team that finishes in ninth – currently Aston Villa, who beat them 2-1 in their Premier League meeting last month – and if they won that, they’d face the team who finishes eighth in the league phase in the last 16.
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In theory, climbing a couple of places would earn City a more favourable play-off opponent, but the truth is that elimination is a real possibility (36.2%) right now, so they’ll take anything they can get.
Brugge need to avoid defeat at the Etihad to qualify, and given they are currently on a 15-match unbeaten streak, they may fancy their chances. That run includes four Champions League games against Villa (1-0), Celtic (1-1), Sporting (2-1) and Juventus (0-0). They are no pushovers.
Matchday 8 Fixtures
Aston Villa (9th) vs Celtic (18th)
Barcelona (2nd) vs Atalanta (7th)
Bayer Leverkusen (8th) vs Sparta Prague (29th)
Bayern Munich (15th) vs Slovan Bratislava (35th)
Borussia Dortmund (14th) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (27th)
Brest (13th) vs Real Madrid (16th)
Dinamo Zagreb (26th) vs Milan (6th)
Girona (31st) vs Arsenal (3rd)
Internazionale (4th) vs Monaco (10th)
Juventus (17th) vs Benfica (21st)
Lille (12th) vs Feyenoord (11th)
Manchester City (25th) vs Club Brugge (20th)
PSV (19th) vs Liverpool (1st)
Red Bull Salzburg (34th) vs Atlético Madrid (5th)
Sturm Graz (33rd) vs RB Leipzig (30th)
Sporting CP (23rd) vs Bologna (28th)
VfB Stuttgart (24th) vs Paris Saint-Germain (22nd)
Young Boys (36th) vs Crvena zvezda (32nd)
